PMI-RMP · Question #552
A project team identified some risks in a project. Team members became interested in predicting the outcomes of their potential choices following their probability of occurrence. Which technique shoul
The correct answer is C. Decision tree analysis. Decision tree analysis is explicitly designed to map out multiple decision paths, assign probabilities to each branch, and calculate the expected value of each possible outcome. This directly addresses the team's goal of understanding which choice leads to which outcome and how l
Question
A project team identified some risks in a project. Team members became interested in predicting the outcomes of their potential choices following their probability of occurrence. Which technique should the risk manager use?
Options
- APolitical, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental (PESTLE) analysis
- BStrengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis
- CDecision tree analysis
- DCost-benefit analysis
How the community answered
(52 responses)- A4% (2)
- B17% (9)
- C71% (37)
- D8% (4)
Explanation
Decision tree analysis is explicitly designed to map out multiple decision paths, assign probabilities to each branch, and calculate the expected value of each possible outcome. This directly addresses the team's goal of understanding which choice leads to which outcome and how likely each outcome is. A decision tree visually represents the logical flow of decisions and chance events, with EMV calculations at each node guiding the optimal choice. PESTLE (A) and SWOT (B) are environmental scanning and strategic assessment tools used for risk identification, not outcome prediction. Cost-benefit analysis (D) compares financial costs to benefits but does not inherently incorporate probability-weighted outcome modeling the way a decision tree does.
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