The project manager has asked for the P50 estimate for the project schedule. What is the P50 estimate?

The correct answer is C. 73 days. P50 refers to the 50th percentile of a probability distribution - the point at which there is a 50% probability that the project will be completed at or before that duration. It is essentially the median outcome from a quantitative analysis technique such as Monte Carlo…

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Question

Exhibit

Options

A75 days
B73.5 days
C73 days
D72.5 days

How the community answered

(25 responses)

B
4% (1)
C
88% (22)
D
8% (2)

Explanation

P50 refers to the 50th percentile of a probability distribution - the point at which there is a 50% probability that the project will be completed at or before that duration. It is essentially the median outcome from a quantitative analysis technique such as Monte Carlo simulation. In a Monte Carlo output, the cumulative probability distribution shows different schedule durations and their likelihood. The P50 value (73 days) is the median result, meaning half of all simulated scenarios complete at or before 73 days and half finish after. P50 is commonly used as the most likely realistic estimate, balanced between optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.

Topics

#P-estimates#Schedule Risk Analysis#Quantitative Risk Analysis#Monte Carlo Simulation

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