____ analysis is a statistical concept that calculates the average outcome when the future includes scenarios that may or may not happen.

Expert judgment is an elicitation technique that uses specialized knowledge and experience to inform decisions; it is not a statistical formula for averaging monetary outcomes.

Expected Monetary Value is calculated by multiplying each outcome's probability by its monetary impact and summing all products, producing the statistical average result when future scenarios may or may not occur. It is commonly used in decision tree analysis to compare risk response options and select the path with the highest expected value or lowest expected cost.

Sensitivity analysis identifies which individual risk variable has the greatest potential impact on the project outcome, typically visualized with a tornado diagram - it does not calculate an average outcome across scenarios.

Modeling and simulation is a broader computational technique that generates probabilistic project outcomes from input distributions; it can use EMV as a concept internally but is not the definition of the statistical average-outcome calculation.