A project manager is determining the amount of contingency needed for a project. Which analysis is the project manager using?

What-if scenario analysis evaluates the effect of various scenarios on the project schedule, primarily used in schedule development rather than contingency determination.

Simulation, such as Monte Carlo analysis, models the combined effects of individual risks on overall project outcomes, but it is a specific analytical tool rather than the overarching technique for setting reserves.

Alternatives analysis is used to evaluate different options for meeting project requirements or resolving issues, not to determine reserve amounts.

Reserve analysis is specifically used to establish contingency reserves - amounts added to cost or schedule estimates to account for identified risks and general uncertainty. The project manager evaluates the risk exposure of the project to determine how much buffer is needed beyond the base estimate. This technique distinguishes between contingency reserves (for known-unknown risks) and management reserves (for unknown-unknown risks).