You are the project manager for your organization. You have recorded the following duration estimates for an activity in your project: optimistic 20, most likely 45, pessimistic 90. What time will…

Question

Options

• A48
• B20o, 45m, 90p
• C90
• D45

• A
  88% (23)
• C
  8% (2)
• D
  4% (1)

Explanation

This is an example of a three-point estimate. A three-point estimate records the optimistic, most likely, and the pessimistic duration, and then records an average for the predicted duration Three- point estimate is a way to enhance the accuracy of activity duration estimates. This concept is originated with the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). PERT charts the following three estimates: Most likely (TM): The duration of activity based on realistic factors such as resources assigned, interruptions, etc. Optimistic (TO): The activity duration based on the best-case scenario Pessimistic (TP): The activity duration based on the worst-case scenario The expected (TE) activity duration is a weighted average of these three estimates: TE = (TO + 4TM + TP) / 6 Duration estimates based on the above equations (sometimes simple average of the three estimates is also used) provide more accuracy. It can be calculated as follows: TE = ( 20 + 45*4 + 90) / 6 Answer options B, C, and D are incorrect. These are not the valid answers for this question.

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