PMI-RMP · Question #633
A project team does not understand why a very low probability risk occurred during project execution. The team was especially vigilant about planning for this type of risk during the risk planning pha
The correct answer is A. Monte Carlo analysis. Monte Carlo analysis runs thousands of simulations using probability distributions for project variables (durations, costs) to generate a range of possible project outcomes and their likelihoods. After a 2-month delay caused by an unexpected risk, the risk manager can use Monte C
Question
A project team does not understand why a very low probability risk occurred during project execution. The team was especially vigilant about planning for this type of risk during the risk planning phase. The project has been delayed by 2 months, and the stakeholders are considering canceling the project. The risk manager needs to demonstrate that the project can be concluded. Which analysis should the risk manager perform to demonstrate this to the stakeholders'?
Options
- AMonte Carlo analysis
- BPareto analysis
- CIshikawa analysis
- DQualitative risk analysis
How the community answered
(34 responses)- A56% (19)
- B15% (5)
- C24% (8)
- D6% (2)
Explanation
Monte Carlo analysis runs thousands of simulations using probability distributions for project variables (durations, costs) to generate a range of possible project outcomes and their likelihoods. After a 2-month delay caused by an unexpected risk, the risk manager can use Monte Carlo to show stakeholders the probability distribution of completion dates and costs going forward-demonstrating that, despite the setback, there is still a statistically strong probability of project completion within acceptable bounds. This quantitative evidence can counter the impulse to cancel. Pareto analysis (B) prioritizes causes by frequency/impact but doesn't forecast completion. Ishikawa analysis (C) identifies root causes of problems. Qualitative risk analysis (D) ranks risks by probability and impact but does not model forward-looking completion scenarios.
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