PMI-RMP · Question #63
You are the project manager of the AMD project for your organization. In this project, you are currently performing quantitative risk analysis. The tool and technique you are using is simulation…
The correct answer is D. Monte Carlo Technique. The Monte Carlo Technique (Monte Carlo simulation) is the quantitative risk analysis method that runs a project model thousands of times using randomly selected input values (e.g., task durations or costs drawn from probability distributions) to generate an overall probability…
Question
You are the project manager of the AMD project for your organization. In this project, you are currently performing quantitative risk analysis. The tool and technique you are using is simulation where the project model is computed many times with the input values chosen at random for each iteration. The goal is to create a probability distribution from the iterations for the project schedule. What technique will you use with this simulation?
Options
- APareto modeling
- BExpected Monetary Value
- CAnalogous modeling
- DMonte Carlo Technique
How the community answered
(37 responses)- A5% (2)
- B3% (1)
- C3% (1)
- D89% (33)
Explanation
The Monte Carlo Technique (Monte Carlo simulation) is the quantitative risk analysis method that runs a project model thousands of times using randomly selected input values (e.g., task durations or costs drawn from probability distributions) to generate an overall probability distribution for project outcomes such as schedule or cost. This allows project managers to quantify the likelihood of completing the project by a given date or within a given budget. Pareto modeling ranks issues by frequency, EMV calculates expected monetary outcomes, and analogous modeling uses historical project data for estimating - none of these involve iterative random sampling simulations.
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