In a complex project, individual risks have been identified with the stakeholders. The project sponsor asks the risk manager about the likelihood of project success. Which risk analysis tool(s) should

Question

Options

• AProbabilistic and quantitative risk analyses to get the overall risk score
• BQuantitative risk analysis to get the overall risk score
• CProbabilistic risk analysis to get the overall risk score
• DQualitative risk analysis to get the overall risk score

• A
  83% (33)
• B
  10% (4)
• C
  3% (1)
• D
  5% (2)

Explanation

Answering a question about the overall likelihood of project success requires moving beyond individual risks. Qualitative risk analysis prioritizes individual risks but does not produce an overall project-level probability. Quantitative risk analysis (e.g., Monte Carlo simulation, decision tree analysis) aggregates individual risk probabilities and impacts to model their combined effect on project objectives, yielding the overall probability of meeting schedule, cost, or scope targets. Both analyses are needed: qualitative identifies and prioritizes risks to feed into the quantitative model, and quantitative produces the numerical answer the sponsor is seeking. Using only quantitative (B) or only qualitative/probabilistic (C, D) analysis provides an incomplete picture for answering the sponsor's question.

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