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PMI-RMP · Question #254

You are the project manager of the GHE Project. You have identified the following risks with the characteristics as shown in the following figure: How much capital should the project set aside for the

The correct answer is C. $23,750. The contingency reserve is calculated by summing the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) of all identified risks, where EMV equals probability multiplied by monetary impact.

Perform Targeted Risk Analysis

Question

You are the project manager of the GHE Project. You have identified the following risks with the characteristics as shown in the following figure: How much capital should the project set aside for the risk contingency reserve?

Options

  • A$142,000
  • B$41,750
  • C$23,750
  • D$232,000

How the community answered

(52 responses)
  • A
    4% (2)
  • B
    17% (9)
  • C
    71% (37)
  • D
    8% (4)

Why each option

The contingency reserve is calculated by summing the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) of all identified risks, where EMV equals probability multiplied by monetary impact.

A$142,000

$142,000 likely represents the sum of raw monetary impact values without applying probability weighting to each risk.

B$41,750

$41,750 likely results from an incorrect partial sum or misapplication of probability factors to some but not all risks.

C$23,750Correct

Each risk's Expected Monetary Value is computed by multiplying its probability of occurrence by its cost impact, and the contingency reserve equals the sum of all individual EMVs. Based on the risk register data shown in the figure, the correctly weighted sum of all risk EMVs equals $23,750. This amount represents the statistically expected cost of identified risks and is the standard PMBOK method for establishing a quantitative contingency reserve.

D$232,000

$232,000 likely represents the total of all risk impacts assuming every identified risk occurs, which overstates the reserve by ignoring probability.

Concept tested: Expected monetary value calculation for contingency reserves

Topics

#Risk Contingency Reserve#Expected Monetary Value (EMV)#Quantitative Risk Analysis#Risk Budgeting

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