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PMI-RMP · Question #212

Mary is the project manager of PKT project. In Mary's project there are certain enterprise environmental factors that require Mary to use modeling and simulation techniques to predict the likelihood…

The correct answer is D. Monte Carlo Analysis. Monte Carlo Analysis is a quantitative risk technique that randomly samples input values across many iterations to produce a probability distribution of possible project outcomes.

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Question

Mary is the project manager of PKT project. In Mary's project there are certain enterprise environmental factors that require Mary to use modeling and simulation techniques to predict the likelihood of achieving cost and schedule objectives in the project. Mary is using a technique for which the cost estimates are chosen at random for each iteration of the analysis, such as pessimistic, most likely, and worst-case scenarios. What type of analysis is Mary using in this project?

Options

  • AQuantitative analysis
  • BQualitative analysis
  • CRisk distribution
  • DMonte Carlo Analysis

How the community answered

(34 responses)
  • A
    3% (1)
  • B
    9% (3)
  • C
    3% (1)
  • D
    85% (29)

Why each option

Monte Carlo Analysis is a quantitative risk technique that randomly samples input values across many iterations to produce a probability distribution of possible project outcomes.

AQuantitative analysis

Quantitative analysis is a broad category of risk analysis techniques, not a specific technique name; Monte Carlo is a type of quantitative analysis, not a synonym for it.

BQualitative analysis

Qualitative analysis uses subjective probability and impact ratings to prioritize risks, not random numerical sampling or simulation iterations.

CRisk distribution

Risk distribution is not a recognized PMI risk analysis technique; it is a term describing the output shape of a Monte Carlo result, not the technique itself.

DMonte Carlo AnalysisCorrect

Monte Carlo Analysis works by randomly selecting cost or schedule estimate values (pessimistic, most likely, optimistic) for each variable on each iteration, running hundreds or thousands of simulations to produce a probabilistic range of outcomes. Enterprise environmental factors or regulatory requirements may mandate its use when stakeholders need statistical confidence levels for cost and schedule objectives. This matches the description of randomly chosen estimates used across repeated iterations of analysis.

Concept tested: Monte Carlo simulation in quantitative risk analysis

Source: https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/monte-carlo-schedule-risk-analysis-7700

Topics

#Monte Carlo Analysis#Quantitative Risk Analysis#Modeling and Simulation#Cost and Schedule Risk

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