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PMI-RMP · Question #206

Ned is the project manager of the HNN project for your company. Ned has asked you to help him complete some probability distributions for his project. What portion of the project will you most…

The correct answer is D. Uncertainty in values such as duration of schedule activities. Probability distributions are most commonly applied in quantitative risk analysis to represent uncertainty in project variables such as the duration of schedule activities.

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Question

Ned is the project manager of the HNN project for your company. Ned has asked you to help him complete some probability distributions for his project. What portion of the project will you most likely use for probability distributions?

Options

  • ABias towards risk in new resources
  • BRisk probability and impact matrixes
  • CRisk identification
  • DUncertainty in values such as duration of schedule activities

How the community answered

(50 responses)
  • B
    2% (1)
  • C
    4% (2)
  • D
    94% (47)

Why each option

Probability distributions are most commonly applied in quantitative risk analysis to represent uncertainty in project variables such as the duration of schedule activities.

ABias towards risk in new resources

Bias towards risk in new resources describes a behavioral or attitudinal tendency, not a structured analytical variable to which probability distributions are formally applied.

BRisk probability and impact matrixes

Risk probability and impact matrices are ordinal scoring tools used in qualitative risk analysis and do not use continuous probability distributions.

CRisk identification

Risk identification is the process of documenting potential risks and does not involve applying probability distributions to model uncertain variables.

DUncertainty in values such as duration of schedule activitiesCorrect

In quantitative risk analysis techniques like Monte Carlo simulation, probability distributions (such as triangular, beta, or uniform) are used to model the range of possible values for uncertain inputs like activity durations and cost estimates. These distributions replace single-point estimates, allowing the simulation to generate a probability distribution of overall project outcomes such as finish date or total cost.

Concept tested: Probability distributions applied in quantitative risk analysis

Topics

#Probability Distributions#Quantitative Risk Analysis#Uncertainty Modeling#Schedule Risk Analysis

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