nerdexam
PMI

CAPM · Question #174

What does an S-curve from a Monte Carlo analysis show?

The correct answer is A. Cumulative probability distribution representing probability of achieving a particular outcome. A Monte Carlo analysis S-curve plots cumulative probability on the y-axis against cost or schedule outcomes on the x-axis, showing the likelihood of achieving a given result.

Predictive, Plan-Based Methodologies

Question

What does an S-curve from a Monte Carlo analysis show?

Options

  • ACumulative probability distribution representing probability of achieving a particular outcome
  • BIndividual project risks or uncertainties that have the most potential impact on outcome
  • CBest alternative out of the possible solutions, incorporating associated risks and opportunities
  • DDiagram for all project uncertainties and their influence over a period of time

How the community answered

(28 responses)
  • A
    89% (25)
  • B
    4% (1)
  • D
    7% (2)

Why each option

A Monte Carlo analysis S-curve plots cumulative probability on the y-axis against cost or schedule outcomes on the x-axis, showing the likelihood of achieving a given result.

ACumulative probability distribution representing probability of achieving a particular outcomeCorrect

An S-curve generated from Monte Carlo simulation represents the cumulative probability distribution of project outcomes. It allows project managers to read the probability of completing the project at or below a specific cost or schedule value, enabling informed decisions about contingency reserves and schedule targets.

BIndividual project risks or uncertainties that have the most potential impact on outcome

Individual project risks with the most potential impact on outcome are displayed in a tornado diagram, not an S-curve from Monte Carlo analysis.

CBest alternative out of the possible solutions, incorporating associated risks and opportunities

Selecting the best alternative incorporating risks and opportunities describes a decision tree analysis output, not a Monte Carlo S-curve.

DDiagram for all project uncertainties and their influence over a period of time

Diagrams showing project uncertainties and their influence over time describe an influence diagram, which is a separate analytical tool.

Concept tested: Monte Carlo simulation S-curve interpretation

Source: https://www.pmi.org/pmbok-guide-standards/foundational/pmbok

Topics

#Monte Carlo Analysis#S-curve#Quantitative Risk Analysis#Probability Distribution

Community Discussion

No community discussion yet for this question.

Full CAPM Practice