CAPM · Question #174
What does an S-curve from a Monte Carlo analysis show?
The correct answer is A. Cumulative probability distribution representing probability of achieving a particular outcome. A Monte Carlo analysis S-curve plots cumulative probability on the y-axis against cost or schedule outcomes on the x-axis, showing the likelihood of achieving a given result.
Question
Options
- ACumulative probability distribution representing probability of achieving a particular outcome
- BIndividual project risks or uncertainties that have the most potential impact on outcome
- CBest alternative out of the possible solutions, incorporating associated risks and opportunities
- DDiagram for all project uncertainties and their influence over a period of time
How the community answered
(28 responses)- A89% (25)
- B4% (1)
- D7% (2)
Why each option
A Monte Carlo analysis S-curve plots cumulative probability on the y-axis against cost or schedule outcomes on the x-axis, showing the likelihood of achieving a given result.
An S-curve generated from Monte Carlo simulation represents the cumulative probability distribution of project outcomes. It allows project managers to read the probability of completing the project at or below a specific cost or schedule value, enabling informed decisions about contingency reserves and schedule targets.
Individual project risks with the most potential impact on outcome are displayed in a tornado diagram, not an S-curve from Monte Carlo analysis.
Selecting the best alternative incorporating risks and opportunities describes a decision tree analysis output, not a Monte Carlo S-curve.
Diagrams showing project uncertainties and their influence over time describe an influence diagram, which is a separate analytical tool.
Concept tested: Monte Carlo simulation S-curve interpretation
Source: https://www.pmi.org/pmbok-guide-standards/foundational/pmbok
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