The project manager has the following information about the estimated duration for an activity: - Most likely [tM] " 15 days - Pessimistic [tP] " 20 days - Optimistic [tO] " 10 days What is the…

The correct answer is B. 15 days. The triangular distribution (simple average) formula is: (tO + tM + tP) / 3. Substituting the given values: (10 + 15 + 20) / 3 = 45 / 3 = 15 days. This contrasts with the PERT (beta distribution) formula - (tO + 4tM + tP) / 6 - which weights the most likely estimate more…

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Question

The project manager has the following information about the estimated duration for an activity:
Most likely [tM] " 15 days
Pessimistic [tP] " 20 days
Optimistic [tO] " 10 days
What is the estimated duration of this activity, according to the triangular distribution technique?

Options

A10 days
B15 days
C12.5 days
D5 days

How the community answered

(19 responses)

A
11% (2)
B
79% (15)
C
5% (1)
D
5% (1)

Explanation

The triangular distribution (simple average) formula is: (tO + tM + tP) / 3. Substituting the given values: (10 + 15 + 20) / 3 = 45 / 3 = 15 days. This contrasts with the PERT (beta distribution) formula - (tO + 4tM + tP) / 6 - which weights the most likely estimate more heavily. In this particular case both formulas yield 15 days, but the question specifically asks for the triangular distribution result. The triangular distribution gives equal weight to all three estimates.

Topics

#Activity Duration Estimating#Triangular Distribution#Three-Point Estimating

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