What schedule analysis simulation tool allows you, the project manager, to review possible combinations of events such as optimistic, most likely and pessimistic outcomes for your project?

Question

Options

• APERT
• BMonte Carlo
• CPMIS
• DGERT

• B
  90% (18)
• C
  5% (1)
• D
  5% (1)

Explanation

The Monte Carlo simulation tool allows a project manager to explore "what-if" analysis for the project schedule and possible combinations of events in the project. Monte Carlo simulation is a process for iteratively evaluating a deterministic form using sets of random numbers as inputs. This method is repeatedly used when the model is complex, nonlinear, or involves more than just a couple of vague parameters. Monte Carlo simulation is named after the city in Monaco , where the major attractions are casinos that have games of chance. Gambling games, such as roulette, dice, and slot machines, exhibit random behavior. This technique works particularly well when the process is one where the underlying probabilities are known but the results are more difficult to determine. It is a process that generates hundreds or thousands of probable performance outcomes based on probability distribution for cost and schedule on individual tasks. The outcomes are then used to generate a probability distribution for the project as a whole. Answer option D is incorrect. GERT is the Graphical Evaluation Review Technique and is a visual mapping of the project work including branches and loop backs within the project. Answer option A is incorrect. PERT is the Program Evaluation and Review Technique and is used for project scheduling and time estimating. Answer option C is incorrect. PMIS is a project management information system, such as Microsoft Project, and often includes what-if analysis tools, but it's not the best answer for this

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