You are the project manager for your organization. Your project is doing fine on time and cost, but management wants to address the project performance for future accomplishment. Management has…

Question

Options

• AJudgmental methods
• BCausal/econometric methods
• CTime series methods
• DEstimate at completion method

• B
  9% (2)
• C
  87% (20)
• D
  4% (1)

Explanation

These are examples of a time series method for forecasting project performance. Another method that fits with the time series method of forecasting is earned value management. Forecasting is the process of estimating or predicting in unknown situations. Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible with the help of all the information available, including historical data and knowledge of any future events that might impact forecasts. The forecasting methods are categorized as follows: Time series method: It uses historical data as the basis for estimating future outcomes. Causal/econometric method: This forecasting method is based on the assumption that it is possible to identify some factors that might influence the variable that is being forecasted. If the causes are understood, projections of the influencing variables can be made and used in the forecast. Judgmental method: Judgmental forecasting methods incorporate intuitive judgments, opinions, and subjective probability estimates. Other methods: Other methods may include probabilistic forecasting, simulation, and ensemble forecasting. Answer option B is incorrect. Causal/econometric methods do not use the moving average, but models such as linear regression and non- linear regression. Answer option A is incorrect. Judgmental methods for forecasting are based on intuition, opinions, and probability estimates. Answer option D is incorrect. The estimate at completion method is an earned value management formula, which is part of the time series method for reporting and forecasting performance.

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