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PK0-003 · Question #352

A project needs software. After analyzing the choices, it is determined that if made in- house, it will cost $100,000. However, if the software is purchased, the cost would be $25,000. After reviewing

The correct answer is C. $165,000. The Expected Monetary Value (EMV) for purchasing the software is calculated by summing the initial purchase cost and the probabilistic cost of required training and customizations.

Project management concepts

Question

A project needs software. After analyzing the choices, it is determined that if made in- house, it will cost $100,000. However, if the software is purchased, the cost would be $25,000. After reviewing the successful implementations in the past, if made in-house, there is a 20% chance that $30,000 would be spent on bug fixes. If the software is purchased, there is a 70% chance that $200,000 in training and customizations would be required. Which of the following reflects the expected monetary value of purchasing the software?

Options

  • A$106,000
  • B$157,500
  • C$165,000
  • D$225,000

How the community answered

(28 responses)
  • A
    7% (2)
  • B
    4% (1)
  • C
    71% (20)
  • D
    18% (5)

Why each option

The Expected Monetary Value (EMV) for purchasing the software is calculated by summing the initial purchase cost and the probabilistic cost of required training and customizations.

A$106,000

This value ($100,000 + 0.20 * $30,000 = $106,000) represents the EMV for making the software in-house, not purchasing it.

B$157,500

This value does not align with the correct EMV calculation for purchasing the software based on the provided data.

C$165,000Correct

The EMV for purchasing the software is calculated as the initial cost plus the product of the probability and cost of the uncertain event. This is $25,000 (purchase cost) + (70% probability * $200,000 training/customizations) = $25,000 + $140,000 = $165,000.

D$225,000

This value appears to be a simple sum of the purchase cost and the potential training/customization cost without applying the probability ($25,000 + $200,000 = $225,000).

Concept tested: Expected Monetary Value (EMV) calculation

Source: https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/quantitative-risk-analysis-how-to-do-it-7389

Topics

#Expected Monetary Value (EMV)#Risk quantitative analysis#Cost estimation#Decision making

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