You are the program manager for your organization and you are trying to determine the possible outcomes of a risk event. You're analyzing the risk event's worst case scenario, most likely scenario…

Decision tree analysis evaluates discrete branching decision points and their associated probabilities and payoffs, not continuous simulation across a range of scenario inputs.

Force field analysis is a change management and decision-making tool that identifies and weighs driving versus restraining forces - it is not a quantitative risk simulation technique.

Monte Carlo simulation uses three-point estimates (pessimistic, most likely, and optimistic) as inputs to run thousands of randomized iterations, generating a probability distribution of possible project outcomes. This produces confidence-level estimates and cumulative probability curves for cost and schedule, directly modeling how risk events could impact the program across all three scenario types described.

Sensitivity analysis determines which individual risk variables have the greatest impact on project objectives by varying one factor at a time, rather than simulating combined probabilistic scenarios.