PMP · Question #534
A project manager meets with the development team to estimate the time required to complete a software application. The software developers are new to the company, and they have never developed a…
The correct answer is D. Three-point estimating. Given new developers and an unfamiliar application, three-point estimating is recommended for its ability to account for uncertainty by using optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates.
Question
A project manager meets with the development team to estimate the time required to complete a software application. The software developers are new to the company, and they have never developed a similar application. Which estimation technique should the project manager recommend?
Options
- AAnalogous estimating
- BParametric estimating
- CPlanning poker
- DThree-point estimating
How the community answered
(28 responses)- A4% (1)
- B11% (3)
- C14% (4)
- D71% (20)
Why each option
Given new developers and an unfamiliar application, three-point estimating is recommended for its ability to account for uncertainty by using optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates.
Analogous estimating relies on historical data from similar projects, which is not available since the team is new and the application is unfamiliar.
Parametric estimating uses statistical relationships between historical data and other variables, which is unsuitable given the lack of historical data for this new team and application.
Planning poker is an agile estimation technique that uses expert judgment, but it still benefits from some level of team experience or familiarity with similar work, making it less robust for entirely new scenarios than three-point estimating.
Three-point estimating (PERT) is ideal when there is significant uncertainty or a lack of historical data, as it uses optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates to calculate a more realistic range, providing a better foundation for new teams on unfamiliar projects. This method helps to quantify the risk and uncertainty associated with new work by considering multiple scenarios.
Concept tested: Project estimation techniques under uncertainty
Source: https://www.pmi.org/pmbok-guide-standards/foundational/pmbok/estimating-activity-durations
Topics
Community Discussion
4
Olusegun A.Jul 5, 2026D is correct here. When the team lacks experience with the work, three-point estimating gives you a risk-adjusted estimate using best, worst, and most likely scenarios instead of relying on historical data you do not have.
Yuki V.Jun 30, 2026Saw this on my exam last month, picked D because no history means spread the risk with three points.
Samuel O.Jul 5, 2026D is right but C is tempting since poker handles uncertainty too, just less formally.
Olusegun A.Jul 8, 2026C is tempting but Planning Poker is about estimation consensus, not uncertainty modeling, so D holds.