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PGMP · Question #287

What schedule analysis simulation tool allows you, the project manager, to review possible combinations of events such as optimistic, most likely and pessimistic outcomes for your project?

The correct answer is D. Monte Carlo. Monte Carlo simulation is the schedule analysis tool that models thousands of combinations of optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic outcomes to quantify schedule risk.

Program Planning

Question

What schedule analysis simulation tool allows you, the project manager, to review possible combinations of events such as optimistic, most likely and pessimistic outcomes for your project?

Options

  • APERT
  • Bgert
  • Cpmis
  • DMonte Carlo

How the community answered

(41 responses)
  • A
    2% (1)
  • B
    2% (1)
  • C
    5% (2)
  • D
    90% (37)

Why each option

Monte Carlo simulation is the schedule analysis tool that models thousands of combinations of optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic outcomes to quantify schedule risk.

APERT

PERT uses three-point estimates (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) to calculate a single weighted average duration - it is a mathematical estimation technique, not a simulation tool.

Bgert

GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique) handles conditional branching and looping in network diagrams but is not the primary tool for probabilistic schedule simulation.

Cpmis

PMIS (Project Management Information System) is a software platform for managing project data and reporting - it is not a schedule analysis or simulation technique.

DMonte CarloCorrect

Monte Carlo simulation applies probability distributions to individual task durations and runs thousands of iterations to produce a statistical range of possible project completion dates. Unlike PERT, which yields a single weighted average estimate, Monte Carlo provides a probability distribution of outcomes that quantifies schedule risk. It is the recognized simulation technique for analyzing combinations of schedule scenarios in project management.

Concept tested: Monte Carlo simulation for probabilistic schedule risk analysis

Source: https://www.pmi.org/pmbok-guide-standards/foundational/pmbok

Topics

#Monte Carlo Simulation#Schedule Analysis#Quantitative Risk Analysis#Risk Management

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