PGMP · Question #287
What schedule analysis simulation tool allows you, the project manager, to review possible combinations of events such as optimistic, most likely and pessimistic outcomes for your project?
The correct answer is D. Monte Carlo. Monte Carlo simulation is the schedule analysis tool that models thousands of combinations of optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic outcomes to quantify schedule risk.
Question
What schedule analysis simulation tool allows you, the project manager, to review possible combinations of events such as optimistic, most likely and pessimistic outcomes for your project?
Options
- APERT
- Bgert
- Cpmis
- DMonte Carlo
How the community answered
(41 responses)- A2% (1)
- B2% (1)
- C5% (2)
- D90% (37)
Why each option
Monte Carlo simulation is the schedule analysis tool that models thousands of combinations of optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic outcomes to quantify schedule risk.
PERT uses three-point estimates (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) to calculate a single weighted average duration - it is a mathematical estimation technique, not a simulation tool.
GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique) handles conditional branching and looping in network diagrams but is not the primary tool for probabilistic schedule simulation.
PMIS (Project Management Information System) is a software platform for managing project data and reporting - it is not a schedule analysis or simulation technique.
Monte Carlo simulation applies probability distributions to individual task durations and runs thousands of iterations to produce a statistical range of possible project completion dates. Unlike PERT, which yields a single weighted average estimate, Monte Carlo provides a probability distribution of outcomes that quantifies schedule risk. It is the recognized simulation technique for analyzing combinations of schedule scenarios in project management.
Concept tested: Monte Carlo simulation for probabilistic schedule risk analysis
Source: https://www.pmi.org/pmbok-guide-standards/foundational/pmbok
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