When using the Delphi technique for gathering information, what forecasting method is being used?

Question

Options

• ATime series method
• BCasual method
• CEconometric method
• DJudgmental method

• A
  4% (1)
• B
  12% (3)
• C
  8% (2)
• D
  76% (19)

Explanation

Delphi = Judgmental Forecasting (D)

The Delphi technique relies on structured rounds of expert opinion - a panel of specialists anonymously submit forecasts, receive summarized feedback, and revise their estimates iteratively until consensus emerges. Because the input is human judgment rather than mathematical formulas or historical data, it falls squarely into the judgmental forecasting category.

Why the distractors are wrong:

• A (Time series): Time series methods use historical data patterns (trends, seasonality) to project future values - no human opinion involved.
• B (Causal/Casual): Causal methods model cause-and-effect relationships between variables (e.g., regression), not expert consensus. Note: the correct spelling is "causal," so "casual" may itself be a hint this option is a trap.
• C (Econometric): Econometric models use statistical equations to represent economic relationships - again, data-driven, not opinion-driven.

Memory tip: Think of "Delphi" - the ancient Greek oracle at Delphi gave prophecies based on wisdom and judgment, not data. Just like the oracle, the Delphi technique collects expert judgments to forecast the future.

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