A portfolio manager has been requested to forecast any potential deviation from the baseline plan. Which tool or technique should the portfolio manager use?

Baseline assessment establishes the reference benchmark against which performance is measured but does not itself forecast future deviations from that benchmark.

Modeling and simulation creates exploratory scenarios for hypothetical future states and is better suited to what-if analysis than to measuring actual-versus-planned deviations.

Variance analysis compares current actual results against the approved baseline values and uses the identified differences to project whether ongoing trends will produce future deviations. This technique directly addresses the request to forecast divergence from the baseline by quantifying and extrapolating current performance gaps.

Sensitivity analysis determines which variables most influence outcomes but does not measure or project specific deviations from an established portfolio baseline.