A risk practitioner's BEST guidance to help an organization develop relevant risk scenarios is to ensure the scenarios are:

While industry trends can inform risk scenarios, focusing solely on them might overlook specific internal risks or lead to scenarios that are not probable for the particular organization.

Mapping to incident response plans is a subsequent step after developing scenarios, not a primary driver for developing the scenarios themselves.

Developing risk scenarios related to probable events ensures that the organization focuses its limited resources on preparing for risks that are realistically likely to occur and have a significant impact. This approach maximizes the relevance and utility of the risk assessment process by aligning it with practical threats and vulnerabilities.

Aligning with risk management capabilities is important for response, but the scenario itself should first reflect probable events before considering the organization's ability to manage them.