CAP · Question #287
Jeff, a key stakeholder in your project, wants to know how the risk exposure for the risk events is calculated during quantitative risk analysis. He is worried about the risk exposure which is too…
The correct answer is C. The probability of a risk event times the impact of a risk event determines the true risk. Risk exposure is calculated by multiplying the probability of a risk event by its impact, producing the expected weighted value of that risk.
Question
Jeff, a key stakeholder in your project, wants to know how the risk exposure for the risk events is calculated during quantitative risk analysis. He is worried about the risk exposure which is too low for the events surrounding his project requirements. How is the risk exposure calculated?
Options
- AThe probability of a risk event plus the impact of a risk event determines the true risk expo
- BThe risk exposure of a risk event is determined by historical information.
- CThe probability of a risk event times the impact of a risk event determines the true risk
- DThe probability and impact of a risk event are gauged based on research and in-depth
How the community answered
(22 responses)- A5% (1)
- B9% (2)
- C86% (19)
Why each option
Risk exposure is calculated by multiplying the probability of a risk event by its impact, producing the expected weighted value of that risk.
Adding probability and impact does not produce a meaningful risk exposure value because it does not correctly represent the weighted relationship between likelihood and consequence.
Historical information can be used to estimate probability and impact values but is not itself the formula for calculating risk exposure.
Risk exposure, equivalent to Expected Monetary Value in quantitative analysis, is computed as Probability x Impact. This multiplication yields a weighted value that accounts for both the likelihood of the risk occurring and the severity of its consequences, enabling consistent comparison and prioritization of risks across a project.
Research and in-depth analysis are methods used to develop probability and impact estimates, not the mathematical formula for computing risk exposure.
Concept tested: Quantitative risk analysis - risk exposure (EMV) calculation
Source: https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/quantitative-risk-analysis-techniques-9673
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