A risk manager has to inform a project sponsor of the expected duration of an entire project. The project has three mam tasks, each with different probabilities of duration. Which analytical tool…

The correct answer is D. Monte Carlo simul-ation. When a project has multiple tasks with variable, probabilistic durations, a Monte Carlo simulation (D) is the most appropriate tool. It runs thousands of iterations using the probability distributions of each task's duration to generate a range of possible project completion…

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Question

A risk manager has to inform a project sponsor of the expected duration of an entire project. The project has three mam tasks, each with different probabilities of duration. Which analytical tool should the risk manager use?

Options

AProbability tree diagram
BIshikawa diagram
CDecision tree analysis
DMonte Carlo simul-ation

How the community answered

(57 responses)

A
2% (1)
B
11% (6)
C
4% (2)
D
84% (48)

Explanation

When a project has multiple tasks with variable, probabilistic durations, a Monte Carlo simulation (D) is the most appropriate tool. It runs thousands of iterations using the probability distributions of each task's duration to generate a range of possible project completion dates along with their probabilities. This gives a statistically grounded expected duration rather than a single-point estimate. A probability tree diagram (A) is better for sequential decisions with discrete outcomes. An Ishikawa diagram (B) is for root cause analysis. A decision tree (C) is used for choosing between options under uncertainty, not for modeling aggregated schedule durations.

Topics

#Monte Carlo simulation#Quantitative risk analysis#Project duration estimation#Probabilistic analysis

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