PMI-RMP Question #623: Real Exam Question with Answer & Explanation

The correct answer is D: Monte Carlo simul-ation. When a project comprises multiple tasks, each with varying probable durations, determining the overall project's expected duration necessitates an analytical approach that accounts for this variability. Monte Carlo simul-ation is a robust technique that performs this function eff

Perform Targeted Risk Analysis

Question

A risk manager has to inform a project sponsor of the expected duration of an entire project. The project has three mam tasks, each with different probabilities of duration. Which analytical tool should the risk manager use?

Options

AProbability tree diagram
BIshikawa diagram
CDecision tree analysis
DMonte Carlo simul-ation

Explanation

When a project comprises multiple tasks, each with varying probable durations, determining the overall project's expected duration necessitates an analytical approach that accounts for this variability. Monte Carlo simul-ation is a robust technique that performs this function effectively. By running numerous simul-ations, it models the probability of different outcomes in processes that involve random variables, such as task durations. This method provides a comprehensive view of possible project completion times and their associated probabilities, enabling more informed decision-making.

Topics

#Monte Carlo simulation#Quantitative risk analysis#Project duration estimation#Probabilistic analysis

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