PMI-RMP · Question #307
A regional vendor for custom manufactured steel oil derricks is awarded a contract to design, manufacture, and install 40 offshore oil platforms. Installation of these derricks requires precision plac
The correct answer is C. 44.5%. This question requires calculating the probability of completing all 40 platform installations by January 5, 2016, given that the monsoon season (May–September, approximately 153 days) restricts safe installation windows. Each platform requires 65 days of transport, and the avail
Question
A regional vendor for custom manufactured steel oil derricks is awarded a contract to design, manufacture, and install 40 offshore oil platforms. Installation of these derricks requires precision placement and stable seas for the transport and installation ships to properly install the deep water structure. It takes 65 days to transport the deep water structures for each platform from the manufacturing facility to the installation site at a cost of US$155,000 per day. The monsoon season runs from May to September each year and is a known risk for placement of the oil platforms. There is an incentive clause in the contract that will provide a USS1,500,000 payment, if all 40 platforms are in place and ready for use by 5 January 2016. What is the probability of receiving this incentive?
Exhibit
Options
- A35.0%
- B42.9%
- C44.5%
- D47.5%
How the community answered
(57 responses)- A11% (6)
- B25% (14)
- C60% (34)
- D5% (3)
Explanation
This question requires calculating the probability of completing all 40 platform installations by January 5, 2016, given that the monsoon season (May–September, approximately 153 days) restricts safe installation windows. Each platform requires 65 days of transport, and the available installation window must avoid the monsoon period. When you calculate the viable scheduling windows across the contract period, accounting for monsoon blackout dates, the cumulative probability that all 40 platforms can be transported and installed on time is approximately 44.5%. The other percentages (35%, 42.9%, 47.5%) result from incorrect assumptions about the available working days or incorrect probability aggregation across the 40 sequential installation events.
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