DATABRICKS-CERTIFIED-PROFESSIONAL-DATA-SCIENTIST Question #95: Real Exam Question with Answer & Explanation

Consider flipping a coin for which the probability of heads is p, where p is unknown, and our goa is to estimate p. The obvious approach is to count how many times the coin came up heads and divide by the total number of coin flips. If we flip the coin 1000 times and it comes up heads 367 times, it is very reasonable to estimate p as approximately 0.367. However, suppose we flip the coin only twice and we get heads both times. Is it reasonable to estimate p as 1.0? Intuitively, given that we only flipped the coin twice, it seems a bit rash to conclude that the coin will always come up heads, and____________is a way of avoiding such rash conclusions.