DATABRICKS-CERTIFIED-PROFESSIONAL-DATA-SCIENTIST · Question #127
Suppose a man told you he had a nice conversation with someone on the train. Not knowing anything about this conversation, the probability that he was speaking to a woman is 50% (assuming the train…
The correct answer is C. Bayes' theorem. To see how this is done, let W represent the event that the conversation was held with a woman, and L denote the event that the conversation was held with a longhaired person. It can be assumed that women constitute half the population for this example. So, not knowing anything…
Question
Suppose a man told you he had a nice conversation with someone on the train. Not knowing anything about this conversation, the probability that he was speaking to a woman is 50% (assuming the train had an equal number of men and women and the speaker was as likely to strike up a conversation with a man as with a woman). Now suppose he also told you that his conversational partner had long hair. It is now more likely he was speaking to a woman, since women are more likely to have long hair than men.____________ can be used to calculate the probability that the person was a woman.
Options
- ASVM
- BMLE
- CBayes' theorem
- DLogistic Regression
How the community answered
(46 responses)- A15% (7)
- B7% (3)
- C74% (34)
- D4% (2)
Explanation
To see how this is done, let W represent the event that the conversation was held with a woman, and L denote the event that the conversation was held with a longhaired person. It can be assumed that women constitute half the population for this example. So, not knowing anything else, the probability that W occurs is P(W) = 0.5. Suppose it is also known that 75% of women have long hair which we denote as P(L |W) = 0.75 (read: the probability of event L given event W is 0.75, meaning that the probability of a person having long hair (event "L"): given that we already know that the person is a woman ("event W") is 75%). Likewise, suppose it is known that 15% of men have long hair, or P(L |M) = 0.15; where M is the complementary event of W: i.e.; the event that the conversation was held with a man (assuming that every human is either a man or a woman). Our goal is to calculate the probability that the conversation was held with a woman, given the fact that the person had long hair, or, in our notation, P(W |L). Using the formula for Bayes' theorem, we have: where we have used the law of total probability to expand P(L), The numeric answer can be obtained by substituting the above values into this formula (the algebraic multiplication is annotated using " *", the centered dot). This yields i.e., the probability that the conversation was held with a woman, given that the person had long hair is about 83%. More examples are provided below.
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