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PMP · Question #1073

A project manager who takes over halfway through a project determines that the cost performance index (CPI) is 0.65. A detailed audit identifies that the project cost was analogously estimated, and…

The correct answer is D. Used bottom-up estimating. The project manager discovered significant cost overruns (CPI 0.65) due to a flawed analogous estimation approach.

Submitted by ngozi_ng· Apr 18, 2026Process

Question

A project manager who takes over halfway through a project determines that the cost performance index (CPI) is 0.65. A detailed audit identifies that the project cost was analogously estimated, and the audit team thinks that something was missing in the way the estimates were done. What should have been done to avoid this problem?

Options

  • AUtilized three-point estimates
  • BValidated the schedule performance index (SPI) to evaluate deviation
  • CIncluded lessons learned from past projects
  • DUsed bottom-up estimating

How the community answered

(14 responses)
  • A
    14% (2)
  • B
    7% (1)
  • D
    79% (11)

Why each option

The project manager discovered significant cost overruns (CPI 0.65) due to a flawed analogous estimation approach.

AUtilized three-point estimates

Three-point estimates improve accuracy by considering optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely scenarios, but they are typically used within a broader estimating technique and don't address the fundamental issue of relying solely on analogous estimating.

BValidated the schedule performance index (SPI) to evaluate deviation

Validating the Schedule Performance Index (SPI) evaluates schedule deviation, which is related to project performance, but it doesn't address the root cause of inaccurate *cost* estimates or suggest a better *estimation method*.

CIncluded lessons learned from past projects

Including lessons learned from past projects is a valuable general best practice, but it doesn't directly specify a more accurate *estimation technique* that should have been used instead of flawed analogous estimating.

DUsed bottom-up estimatingCorrect

Bottom-up estimating involves estimating costs for individual work packages or activities in detail and then aggregating them to get a total project cost, providing a more accurate and detailed estimate compared to analogous (top-down) estimating which was identified as problematic. This method is more precise when a detailed scope is available, helping to avoid significant cost deviations.

Concept tested: Cost estimation techniques, project forecasting accuracy

Topics

#Cost Estimation#Bottom-Up Estimating#Project Planning#Estimation Techniques

Community Discussion

3
Carlos M.Carlos M.Nov 10, 2025

D is the right call. Analogous estimating is top-down and quick but not super accurate, so the fix was to use bottom-up estimating for a more detailed and reliable cost baseline.

21
Brenda K.Brenda K.Nov 4, 2025

Saw this almost word for word on my exam last month, and the CPI 0.65 number is just there to eat your clock so skip it and go straight to the estimating issue. Analogous estimates are quick but rough, and bottom-up is the fix when accuracy matters, which is exactly why D is the answer.

5
Zlatan X.Zlatan X.Oct 29, 2025

Leaned toward C first, but "analogously estimated" signals D, bottom-up estimating.

3
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