PMP Question #1073: Real Exam Question with Answer & Explanation

Question

A project manager who takes over halfway through a project determines that the cost performance index (CPI) is 0.65. A detailed audit identifies that the project cost was analogously estimated, and the audit team thinks that something was missing in the way the estimates were done. What should have been done to avoid this problem?

Options

• AUtilized three-point estimates
• BValidated the schedule performance index (SPI) to evaluate deviation
• CIncluded lessons learned from past projects
• DUsed bottom-up estimating

Explanation

The project manager discovered significant cost overruns (CPI 0.65) due to a flawed analogous estimation approach.

Common mistakes.

• A. Three-point estimates improve accuracy by considering optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely scenarios, but they are typically used within a broader estimating technique and don't address the fundamental issue of relying solely on analogous estimating.
• B. Validating the Schedule Performance Index (SPI) evaluates schedule deviation, which is related to project performance, but it doesn't address the root cause of inaccurate cost estimates or suggest a better estimation method.
• C. Including lessons learned from past projects is a valuable general best practice, but it doesn't directly specify a more accurate estimation technique that should have been used instead of flawed analogous estimating.

Concept tested. Cost estimation techniques, project forecasting accuracy

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