DATABRICKS-CERTIFIED-PROFESSIONAL-DATA-SCIENTIST Question #27: Real Exam Question with Answer & Explanation

Scenario: Suppose that Bob can decide to go to work by one of three modes of transportation, car, bus, or commuter train. Because of high traffic, if he decides to go by car. there is a 50% chance he will be late. If he goes by bus, which has special reserved lanes but is sometimes overcrowded, the probability of being late is only 20%. The commuter train is almost never late, with a probability of only 1 %, but is more expensive than the bus. Suppose that Bob is late one day, and his boss wishes to estimate the probability that he drove to work that day by car. Since he does not know Which mode of transportation Bob usually uses, he gives a prior probability of 1 3 to each of the three possibilities. Which of the following method the boss will use to estimate of the probability that Bob drove to work?