CISSP · Question #524
Which of the following can be used to calculate the loss event probability?
The correct answer is B. Number of outcomes divided by total number of possible outcomes. Loss event probability is calculated using the basic probability formula: the number of favorable (loss) outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes, yielding a value between 0 and 1.
Question
Options
- ATotal number of possible outcomes divided by frequency of outcomes
- BNumber of outcomes divided by total number of possible outcomes
- CNumber of outcomes multiplied by total number of possible outcomes
- DTotal number of possible outcomes multiplied by frequency of outcomes
How the community answered
(45 responses)- B93% (42)
- C4% (2)
- D2% (1)
Why each option
Loss event probability is calculated using the basic probability formula: the number of favorable (loss) outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes, yielding a value between 0 and 1.
Dividing total possible outcomes by frequency of outcomes inverts the probability formula and does not yield a valid probability ratio between 0 and 1.
Probability is defined as the number of specific outcomes (loss events) divided by the total number of possible outcomes. This formula produces a ratio between 0 and 1, representing the likelihood of a loss event occurring, which is the foundational formula used in risk quantification and probabilistic risk assessment.
Multiplying the number of outcomes by total possible outcomes produces an arbitrarily large number, which has no mathematical basis as a probability calculation.
Multiplying total possible outcomes by frequency of outcomes also yields an invalid large number and does not represent a probability, as probability requires division to produce a normalized ratio.
Concept tested: Calculating loss event probability in risk assessment
Source: https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/security/compass/risk-insights-overview
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